Thailand: Land of Smiles
China and India may be Asia’s largest economies, but they aren’t the only countries with growth potential on the continent. Southeast Asian countries can also offer compelling investment opportunities. Thailand, known as the “land of smiles” because of the expression its natural beauty and friendly people inspire, is a country where we believe the economic prospects could give investors reasons to smile too. Read more…
Happy Year of the Snake!
Happy Year of the Snake to my Chinese readers!
I’m pleased to announce my blog is now available in Chinese, in addition to English, German and Spanish.
Commodities: Correlating Trends with Opportunities
Commodity price inflation is both a social and an economic issue. In emerging markets in particular, food and energy costs take a deeper slice out of consumers’ income, which can lead to the type of unrest that causes governments to topple. In addition to the potential impact of extreme weather on food supplies, central banks around the world are printing a flood of money, which could lead to inflated prices for other goods and services. As investors, our job at Templeton is to search for individual companies that show potential ability to survive and thrive in the face of challenges. I believe long-term emerging markets demand for commodities is likely to keep growing, so my team and I continue to hunt for companies we believe are attractive investment opportunities as a result of commodity demand. Among investment themes, we believe emerging-market growth has the potential to create a long-term bull market for commodities, and could lead to related opportunities, particularly in areas such infrastructure construction and the energy sector. Read more…
Investing in Africa: Misconceptions and Realities
It’s easy to fall prey to misconceptions and generalizations about places we’ve never been: to assume everyone in the United States drives big cars, all the French love croissants and all Canadians play hockey. There are many misconceptions about investing in developing markets, and Africa certainly has its fair share, but it’s dangerous to make sweeping generalizations. It’s impossible to know everything about this huge and diverse continent (the second largest in the world by land mass and population) so my team’s approach has been to keep our minds open to the growth possibilities while keeping our eyes open to the potential risks. Read more…
On the Road in India
My latest visit to India coincided with the celebrations of Navratri culminating in the day of the Dussehra, which symbolizes the victory of good over evil as exemplified by Lord Ram killing the demon king Ravana. The festive season starts from the Navratri and continues until Diwali, several weeks later.
In Delhi, my team and I had the privilege of attending one of the many Dussehra celebrations taking place all over the country, an event with some of India’s most prominent officials in attendance. When we arrived, the situation was a bit chaotic, with people milling about and pushing to get onto the grounds, but at the same time it was a festive atmosphere. Purveyors were offering local delicacies such as “roller ice cream,” which is made by dripping an ice cream mixture over a hand operated roller filled with ice and salt, as well as the roomali roti bread (handkerchief bread) which is made by flattening a ball of dough and tossing it in the air to stretch to the thickness of a handkerchief, then baking it on a heated dome.
At the celebration site, there were three 10-meter tall paper and wood effigies of Ravana and two of his family members with red blinking eyes. At the right moment, all the dignitaries were handed richly decorated bows and arrows which they shot in the direction of the effigies, symbolizing the Ram killing the three demon kings. A fireworks display followed, and the effigies went up in spectacular flames. This ceremony was duplicated all over Delhi and other cities in India. I think the most remarkable aspect of the ceremony was that although there were security people at the entrances, security was largely absent inside and near the official podium.
As we traveled to and from the celebrations and to other meetings in India, to us it really brought home the burgeoning traffic crisis there. My team and I visited Delhi, Mumbai, Pune, Bengaluru (formerly known as Bangalore) and some more remote corners of the country during this trip. The migration of farmers from rural areas to cities combined with the explosion of car and motorcycle ownership is creating infrastructure bottlenecks, which won’t likely be cured quickly. Read more…
Ring in the New
The “year of the dragon” in 2012 certainly didn’t disappoint, as the global markets battled one financial dragon after another. From the Eurozone’s sovereign debt crisis to persistently high unemployment in the U.S. and a mayday call from many who worried that China’s growth rate was headed for a “hard landing,” 2012 certainly was interesting. As we turn the calendar page to 2013, the Eurozone seems to be in less-critical condition and China’s economic growth still appears to be flying but as of this writing, the U.S. debt problems still haven’t been solved. From my vantage point, the uncertainties surrounding the U.S. economy may just be the tip of the iceberg, threatening the global economy in the coming year. Nevertheless, with every new dire warning of economic disaster the global equity markets generally continued to power away in 2012. Read more…
Readers’ Questions Answered
I’ve been exploring and investing in emerging markets for over 25 years now, and people often ask me if I get tired of traveling. The answer is a resounding no! It’s not always easy to be constantly on the road (or in the air), but meeting people from all over the world and hearing about their lives gives me energy. While I can’t meet all my blog readers and Twitter followers in person, I appreciate hearing from you. Read on for my answers to a few of your recent questions. Thank you for taking the time to share your perspectives from around the world. Read more…
Egypt’s Arab Winter
It’s been almost two years since the “Arab Spring” swept North Africa and the Middle East, and with it, grand hopes for change. Sometimes, change doesn’t happen as quickly as the people would like, and oftentimes it can be a messy process. That is certainly true in Egypt right now, a country that is still in the throes of shaping its future. The ousting of Hosni Mubarak in 2011 didn’t instantly transform the nation into a model of democracy, and the country is currently deliberating the best way forward via public debates, protests and the election process. But I’m still optimistic about the country’s potential, and continue to seek out investment opportunities there.
Mark Mobius in Tahrir Square
On my most recent trip to Egypt in early December, I arrived in Cairo a few days after President Mohamed Morsi announced that he was assuming dictatorial powers over the writing of the new Egyptian constitution. It was a weekend, and my team and I were introduced to a private art dealer who lived with her mother in a walk-up apartment on a busy city street. We went to see her private collection. The young woman and her mother were members of the sophisticated Western-oriented Egyptian class but not considered wealthy, except for the wonderful art hanging on the walls of their apartment. The young woman said that she was going to Tahrir Square, or “Liberty Square”, where the big “Day of Revolt” and subsequent demonstrations took place nearly two years ago. I asked why she was going. She answered that it was a way to show support for the people protesting the new government’s restrictions on liberty, and their undermining of hard-fought democratic reforms. She invited us to join her. We arranged to meet up an hour later.
When we arrived at Tahrir Square there was barbed wire at the street entrances to the square and civilian guards were asking for ID cards or passports as a security measure. Once we were inside, we found a rather festive atmosphere with hawkers selling fruits, tea and other items. This was a rather shocking situation to us, since we expected a lot of turmoil and chaos. But such conditions were not in sight—at least not during our visit.
Will China’s New Leaders Rise to Reform?
While the uncertainty wrought by the election process in democratic countries may be largely absent in China, the country’s gradual transition to new leadership and the likely new course for the country over the next decade still raise questions. In March 2013, the National People’s Congress, China’s parliament and highest state body, intends to formally usher in China’s leadership, and some members of the “old guard” are retiring. The question on my mind is: Will China’s new leaders continue to reform the economy, moving it toward a domestic consumption model, and still be able to maintain enviable growth rates? I believe the answer is yes. Read more…
Languages
Follow Mark
Share This
